SEC tiebreakers: Alabama vs. Texas-Texas A&M winner is likeliest title game scenario

The potential for an eight-team tie for first place in the SEC has been eliminated, but a six-team tie remains possible following recent games. The road to the SEC championship is becoming clearer: if no further upsets occur, Alabama could face the winner of the Texas vs. Texas A&M matchup in the final regular season game. However, further upsets are still possible.

Current standings show that all teams with three losses, including LSU and Missouri, are out of championship contention because Georgia and either Texas or Texas A&M are assured of two or fewer losses. There is one straightforward, though improbable scenario for determining first and second place: if Texas and Texas A&M both win their next games, while Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Alabama suffer additional losses, then Georgia would face the Texas vs. Texas A&M winner.

Otherwise, determining the championship will rely on the new SEC tiebreakers, which prioritize conference play and matchups. In a 16-team league where each team plays only eight games, head-to-head competition is the initial tiebreaker, followed by records against common opponents and then records against top-ranked teams. The teams' played opponents vary greatly, complicating the tiebreaking process.

Since it's improbable that any of the top three tiebreakers will resolve the tie, the most likely determinant will be the fourth: opponents' combined conference records, reflecting schedule strength. This aspect currently favors Alabama, barring any losses to Oklahoma or Auburn. The same conditions apply to Ole Miss and Tennessee. Although the overall situation has slightly improved in clarity, it remains intriguing and uncertain.